The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has released Do Revenue Surpris Tell Us Much About the Cost of Tax Cuts?.  Here is the opening:

The best answer to the question posed by the title of this paper is probably “no,” revenue surprises do not tell us much about the cost of tax cuts. The reason is that revenues are extremely volatile and move up and down in response to a variety of factors that have nothing to do with tax policy. Indeed, the impacts on revenue levels that the most optimistic dynamic-scoring models predict are trivial in comparison to the unexpected swings in revenue levels that regularly occur for other reasons, whether taxes are cut, raised, or left unchanged.