The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government has published The Effects of State-Level Tax and Expenditure Limitations on Revenues and Expenditures, by Suho Bae & Thomas Gais.  Here is the Conclusion:

The spread of state-level TELs has slowed in recent years. Although economic recessions appeared to strengthen anti-tax and anti-spending efforts in the 1970s and the early 1990s, the most recent state fiscal crisis produced little change despite efforts in several states to enact new state budgetary restrictions or make existing ones more restrictive. Most such efforts failed to get placed on voters’ ballots, or they failed to win approval from voters. Only two states, Maine and Ohio, enacted spending limits in 2005 and 2006 — through state legislation, not voter initiatives.

Prior studies found mixed results when they estimated the effects of state-level TELs on spending and revenues. Our tentative findings strengthened the claim that state-level TELs reduce total state and local spending on a real, per capita basis. But they also suggested that these effects are not neutral with respect to spending or revenue sources. State-level TELs may, for instance, exert significant negative effects on public safety spending, while they may increase the share of the state budget going to transportation functions, perhaps because transportation projects are often paid for through revenue sources (such as tolls, gas taxes, and federal grants) not covered as strictly by TELs as other sources. TELs also lead states and localities to become more dependent on fees and charges, while relying less on property, individual income, and corporate income taxes. States and localities also become less dependent on federal transfers, possibly due to constraints on state and local governments’ capacities to raise matching funds for federal grants-in-aid.

These findings have many implications. Because of the spread of these budgetary rules to many states, public spending on some functional areas, such as public safety, may be inhibited nationally. In addition, state-level TELs may make state and local revenue systems more dependent on regressive revenue sources, such as fees and charges, and less dependent on progressive sources, such as property and income taxes.

Finally, TELs, particularly now that their spread has slowed, may have created an important and not easily reversible divide in the American federal system: between the states that have strong TELs and those that do not, a divide that may eventually produce large differences in spending and revenue priorities across the states.