The Tax Policy Center has updated its Preliminary Analysis of the 2008 Presidential Candidates’ Tax Plans (revised 6/20/08), originally blogged here. Here is the abstract:
Tax and fiscal policy will loom large in the next president’s domestic policy agenda. Nearly all of the tax cuts enacted since 2001 expire at the end of 2010 and the individual AMT threatens to ensnare tens of millions of Americans. While a permanent fix palatable to both political parties has proven elusive, both candidates have proposed major tax changes. This report describes how we performed our modeling and analysis, outlines the major tax proposals, and discusses the implications of their policies for the revenue raised, taxpayer economic activity, and the distribution of the tax burden.
Here is the bottom line:
If enacted, the Obama and McCain tax plans would have radically different effects on the distribution of tax burdens in the United States. The Obama tax plan would make the tax system significantly more progressive by providing large tax breaks to those at the bottom of the income scale and raising taxes significantly on upper-income earners. The McCain tax plan would make the tax system more regressive, even compared with a system in which the 2001–06 tax cuts aremade permanent. It would do so by providing relatively little tax relief to those at the bottom of the income scale while providing huge tax cuts to households at the very top of the income distribution.
Here is Howard Gleckman’s perspective on the Tax Policy Center’s Tax Vox Blog, What the Obama and McCain Plans Would Mean for Real Taxpayers:
- Single mother, $15,000 income, one child: $17 tax cut from McCain, $500 tax cut from Obama
- Married couple, $50,00 income from two earners, no kids: $36 tax cut from McCain, $1,000 tax cut from Obama
- Married couple, $75,000 income from sole earner, two kids: $800 tax cut from McCin, $500 tax cut from Obama
- Married couple, $200,000 income from two earners, one child. $7,000 tax cut from McCain, $5,000 tax cut from Obama
- Married couple, $2,000,000 income from sole earner, one child: $30,000 tax cut from McCain, $135,000 tax increase from Obama
- Unmarried senior, $35,000 income: $250 tax cut from McCain, $3,000 tax cut from Obama (wiping out her tax bill)
- Unmarried senior, $75,000 income: $600 tax cut from McCain, $600 tax increase from Obama
- Married seniors, $10,000 income: $170 tax cut from McCain, $150 tax increase from Obama
For more coverage, see:
- Tax Policy Center, Effect of McCain and Obama Tax Plans on Representative Families
- Tax Policy Center, Complete Set of Revenue and Distributional Tables for Candidates’ Tax Plans Analysis
- Associated Press: Obama’s Tax Policy Would "Devastate" Economy
- Citizens for Tax Justice: Media Matters for America Catches Numerous Attempts to Distort Obama’s Tax Plan
- Diane Rehm Show: McCain and Obama Tax Policy Proposals
- National Center for Policy Analysis: Your Tax Bill: How McCain, Obama Differ
- Tax Vox Blog: McCain’s Disappearing Corporate Tax Reform
- Tax Vox Blog: Off Base: How McCain and Obama Hide Trillions in Debt
- Tax-Compare.com Co-founder Explains How Obama’s and McCain’s Tax Stances Might Affect Future of Tax Software and Preparation
- Yahoo News: Taxes, Integrity and Character





