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Miller & Chevalier’s 2009 Tax Policy Forecast Survey

Miller & Chevalier (Washington, D.C.) today released its 2009 Tax Policy Forecast Survey measuring the current perspectives and attitudes of leading corporate tax executives on the direction of tax policy in the coming year. From the Executive Summary:

Respondents to the third annual survey say that addressing the economic crisis will dominate the tax agenda this year. Once Congress gets past the economic stimulus legislation however, it is unclear what the remainder of the tax agenda will be. Industry leaders are keeping a close eye on a number of current issues that potentially will adversely affect their industries. Longer-term, respondents are calling for greater simplification, a lower corporate tax rate and international tax policies that will help their companies stay more competitive in the global business environment.

  • Respondents name management of the effective tax rate (40%) and taxation of international operations (22%) as their top two business tax concerns in 2009.
  • 95% of respondents think economic stimulus will be a tax policy priority of the Obama Administration, 71% think middle class tax cuts will be a priority and 31% think energy legislation will be a priority.
  • Respondents overwhelmingly believe there is a need for a comprehensive overhaul of the current tax structure, but only 2% think such reform is likely in the coming year.
  • Respondents believe the economic downturn will cause tax policy in 2009 to center on economic stimulus legislation (90%) and delay tax reform legislation (47%).
  •  Respondents believe Congress will look at increased taxation of international operations (69%), limitations on executive compensation (66%) and increased taxes on capital gains, dividends, and interest (59%) as revenue sources.
  • An increase in the taxation of international operations was named the potential Congressional revenue raiser which would have the most unfavorable impact on business.
  • Respondents believe Congress will press for more IRS scrutiny of the tax returns of business taxpayers with respect to international business operations (75%), financial instruments and transactions (69%) and employee benefits and executive compensation (60%).
  • Tax legislation that respondents think is most likely to be enacted into law in 2009 includes economic stimulus legislation (97%), a one-year AMT “patch” (72%) and a one-year “extenders” package (62%).

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