Tax Vox, The Incredible Shrinking Estate Tax, by Bob Williams (Tax Policy Center):

The estate tax is only a faint shadow of its former self. In 2009, less than one-quarter of one percent of deaths—just 5,500 decedents—will leave taxable estates, the smallest percentage since at least the Great Depression. …

 
  
So what’s next? The share of estates owing tax is scheduled to drop to zero in 2010, thanks to the one-year repeal. Except Congress won’t let that happen. Smart money says Congress will extend the 2009 law for 2010—a $3.5-million exemption and a 45% tax rate—and then consider a permanent fix when they deal with the scheduled 2011 sunset of almost all of the Bush tax cuts. Senators John Kyl (R-Az) and and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) want to shrink the tax below its 2009 level—they want a $5-million exemption and a 35% tax rate.