Following up on my prior posts (links below): William Jacobson (Cornell), “Tax Returns for College Transcripts” Will Not Work:

The second Mitt Romney announced he would not release his income tax returns if he becomes nominee I predicted it would not stand because the refusal would, at a minimum, create a major distraction.  It’s part of a larger problem with secrecy which will haunt Romney if he is the nominee.

The most likely scenario is that almost all of Romney’s income is taxed at the 15% long term capital gains rate, playing right into the hands of Team Obama in its Secretaries versus Bosses campaign theme.

Many commenters here believed Romney was setting a trap for Obama to complain, since Romney could say something along the lines of “I’ll release my tax returns when you release your college records….”

The “tax returns for college transcripts” approach will not work.  There are effective ways to question Obama’s narrative, but holding the Republican nominee’s tax returns hostage is not one of those ways. …

So what’s the deal?  It’s pretty simple.  We might say that a specter is haunting Mitt Romney — the specter of the Buffett Rule.

Prior TaxProf Blog coverage:

• Romney Refuses to Release His Tax Returns, Even If He Wins the Nomination (Dec. 23, 2011)
• More on Romney's Refusal to Release His Tax Returns (Dec. 27, 2011)
• Obama Attacks Romney's Refusal to Release His Tax Returns (Dec. 30, 2011)