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Tax Foundation: What Is the Evidence on Taxes and Growth?

Tax Foundation logoTax Foundation:  What Is the Evidence on Taxes and
Growth?
:

[W]hat does the academic literature say about the empirical
relationship between taxes and economic growth? While there are a
variety of methods and data sources, the results consistently point to
significant negative effects of taxes on economic growth even after
controlling for various other factors such as government spending,
business cycle conditions, and monetary policy. In this review of the
literature, I find twenty-six such studies going back to 1983, and all
but three of those studies, and every study in the last fifteen years,
find a negative effect of taxes on growth. Of those studies that
distinguish between types of taxes, corporate income taxes are found to
be most harmful, followed by personal income taxes, consumption taxes
and property taxes. …

[T]he lesson from the studies conducted is that long-term
economic growth is to a significant degree a function of tax policy. Our
current economic doldrums are the result of many factors, but having
the highest corporate rate in the industrialized world does not help.
Nor does the prospect of higher taxes on shareholders and workers. If we
intend to spur investment, we should lower taxes on the earnings of
capital. If we intend to increase employment, we should lower taxes on
workers and the businesses that hire them.


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