Brian D. Galle
(Boston College), The Effect of National Revenues on Sub-National Revenues: Evidence from the U.S.:

I present for the first time an empirical examination of the impact of total federal revenues on total sub-national proceeds. Prior theory recognizes that the effects of national revenues on sub-national revenue-raising are ambiguous. Earlier studies have focused on vertical relationships between particular tax bases, such as the impact of federal commodity taxes on state or provincial commodity tax rates. Using a panel of data from U.S. states over the recent decade, I find an economically and statistically significant degree of federal crowding in of state revenues. I note the potential implications of these results for fiscal federalism theory and legal controversies over federal conditional spending.