Sakshi Bhardwaj (Ph.D. Candidate, Illinois; Google Scholar), Income During Infancy Reduces Criminal Activity for Fathers and Children: Evidence from a Discontinuity in Tax Benefits:

This paper investigates the causal effect of providing extra early cash to low-income families post-childbirth on the criminal justice involvement of families. I employ a regression discontinuity design using the fact that children born to low-income families before year-end can be claimed as dependents on that year’s tax returns, resulting in significantly larger tax refunds during the child’s first year compared to families with January-born children. Utilizing linked administrative data on birth records and criminal justice involvement from Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, I find that eligibility for additional income during the first year of parenthood reduces the likelihood of a criminal charge for fathers by 1.2 percentage points (57%) and the number of criminal charges by 39% as early as one year after childbirth, with effects lasting up to ten years.

The immediate decrease in criminal charges for fathers is particularly evident in income-generating offenses such as robbery and theft, as well as drug possession and driving under the influence. The effect also extends to the criminal activity of children. Male children born before January 1 have a reduced likelihood of having any juvenile justice case during their teenage years and a reduced likelihood of incarceration in their adult years.