AccessLex, Predicting Bar Success: The Mediating Effects of Law School GPA:
Most American law schools evaluate candidates for admission based on final undergraduate GPA (UGPA) and Law School Admission Test (LSAT) scores, due in part to accreditation requirements and institutional bar passage goals. However, several studies have demonstrated racial and ethnic score disparities associated with the LSAT, and prior literature suggests that admissions metrics have limited utility for predicting bar passage — especially when accounting for academic performance in law school.
This study uses data from nearly 20,000 lawyers who graduated from 39 law schools to build on previous literature. We propose statistical mediation to achieve a more accurate understanding of the relationship between, and predictive value of, law school admission factors, first-year law school GPA (1L LGPA), and first-time bar passage.
We find that (1) statistical mediation is preferable to moderation, revealing that (2) 1L LGPA explains 81% and 73% of the predictive effects of final UGPA and LSAT, respectively, on first-time bar passage. Therefore, using LSAT score and UGPA to predict bar passage underemphasizes the role that law schools play in preparing their students for the bar exam and a legal career.
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