David Kamin (NYU), Distribution Reimagined: Determining a Policy's Ultimate Financing, 63 Harv. J. on Legis. ___ (2026):
Policymakers are considering enacting either a new spending program or a tax cut. Who pays for the policy? The answer to that question is central to understanding the consequences. Yet, it is a question which, for the most part, policy analysts and scholars have left under-explored and often answered incorrectly or at least incompletely. Analysts and scholars have approached the issue in a variety of ways including simply believing what policymakers say is the financing in a given piece of legislation, assuming the financing is “distributionally neutral,” or assuming the financing comes from the income tax. These approaches are wrong and fail to capture the ultimate financing. This article suggests an alternative: causal analysis rooted in the political economy of the government. It is distribution reimagined. This article begins to explore what it means to analyze financing as a causal matter. Importantly, there will be no certainty in this endeavor—it is necessarily probabilistic and should take into account the inconsistency of policymakers over time.
The approach can fundamentally change our understanding of the distribution of policy. Policies that seem more progressive may be exactly the opposite when the ultimate financing is properly considered. And, it can lead to a re-evaluation of the wisdom of policy. Given the political economy of the United States, new benefits could be financed to a significant degree by those with lower incomes, despite what policymakers may say at the time. If policymakers continue to be averse to the types of financing sources that reduce this risk, it suggests greater reason to keep fiscal benefits targeted on those with greater need. In the end, irrespective of one’s policy preferences, this type of causal analysis to determine ultimate financing is critical to understanding the effects and wisdom of fiscal policies.
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