The current era of tariffs has unsettled the turn-of-the-century political consensus around free trade. What’s sometimes lost in this reshuffling is the texture of tariffs as currently imposed. In the current policy environment, this texture differs from the myriad exemptions and ratings under VATs or sales taxes.
Tariff schedules tend to be significantly more granular than these generalized consumption taxes, and, in the United States, Executive Branch-imposed tariffs are more likely to be imposed rapidly and change quickly. And, of course, the Supreme Court’s pending decision in Learning Resources could reshape the landscape dramatically.
While this dynamic environment may help trade lawyers make their hours, there’s bipartisan agreement that a persistently dynamic tariff policy isn’t conducive to importers’ short-term compliance or businesses’ long-term planning. More below the fold.
Robert McClelland & John Wong, Supreme Court Ruling on IEEPA Tariffs Could Ease Cost Burdens, But Less Than You Might Think, Tax Pol’y Ctr. (Dec. 9, 2025):
[If the Supreme Court rules against President Trump in Learning Resources, t]he effect on household tariff burdens would be meaningful, but not nearly as large as eye-popping import tax rates like 50 percent might suggest. If IEEPA tariffs are lifted and there are no replacement tariffs, we estimate the average tariff rate would decrease by about 8 percentage points.
Why so little change? Because many imports are already exempt from IEEPA tariffs. . . .
[Even if] IEEPA tariffs are overturned, tariff policy is still expected to shift rapidly, with at least seven types of goods under investigation for future Section 232 tariffs, in addition to more than a dozen Section 301 investigations. The continued uncertainty is likely hindering business investment decisions.
But one thing is certain: Regardless of the Supreme Court ruling, tariffs would remain at historically high levels.
Scott Lincicome, For US Businesses, Tariff Complexity Is “Death by a Thousand Papercuts,” Cato Inst. (Dec. 4, 2025):
As of this week, in fact, a whopping 17 different US tariff measures and seven different legal regimes now apply to significant commercial volumes of imports into the United States—up from just three in 2017. . . .
[A]nother new burden for US importers is that tariff policy is now constantly changing. . . . [S]ignificant revisions to the US tariff code—both new executive branch tariffs and new exceptions to those same tariffs—have become much more frequent and economically significant (and more changes are surely on the way). . . .
[T]he unprecedented and confusing changes to US tariff policy and increased government enforcement actions against importers who make mistakes have pushed American companies to seek official guidance from US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) at an alarmingly high rate (and at a high cost). . . .
The direct tax burden that President Trump’s unilateral tariffs have placed on American companies is undoubtedly significant (roughly $30 billion per month at last count). . . . [T]he tariffs’ regulatory costs are arguably even worse.
Scott Lincicome, Welcome to Tariff Complexity Hell, The Dispatch (Dec. 3, 2025):
[E]ven the best U.S. tariff analyses have typically focused on the big picture—average tariffs, big deals, major actions or exemptions—while ignoring an issue that’s just as important, if not more so, for the tens of thousands of American businesses now forced to grapple with U.S. tariffs every day: their unprecedented, crippling, and truly insane complexity. Beginning in Trump’s first term and dramatically accelerating this year, navigating the U.S. tariff system has gone from relatively easy to mind-numbingly difficult for even the most skilled technicians and biggest corporations. For the little guys, on the other hand, it’s become virtually impossible. And the overall economic cost is likely staggering.
Related TaxProf Blog coverage:
- NY Times: Ahead of Tariff Ruling, Businesses Race to Secure Refunds (Dec. 3, 2025)
- New Federal Reserve Working Paper on Tariff Shocks and Tariff Policy (Nov. 18, 2025)
- Wall Street Bets on Tariff Refunds If Court Rules Against Trump (Oct. 29, 2025)
- WSJ Op-Ed and Letters: Business Tax Reform and Tariffs (Oct. 25, 2025)
- Law Prof Amicus Briefs in the Tariff Cases (Oct. 25, 2025)
- Clausing: Trump Pushes Tariffs To Shift The Tax Burden From The Rich To The Poor And Middle Class (Feb. 25, 2025)
- NY Times: Trump’s Proposed Tax Cuts And Increased Tariffs Could Hurt Poorer Households (July 22, 2024)
