Sara Drango (Chicago), Sarah Moshary (Berkeley), and Bradley Shapiro (Chicago) have a new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper: “California’s Firearm Excise Tax is Almost Fully Passed on to Consumers.” Here is the abstract:

We evaluate the effect of California’s 11 percent excise tax on firearms, introduced in July 2024, on retail prices. Using price quotes for 48 popular firearms from over 2,200 licensed dealers, we compare California prices to those in other states and to pre-tax trends. We find that prices in California increase by about 10% in response to the 11% tax. Results are consistent across gun types and show no evidence of border spillovers. These findings indicate that firearm excise taxes can effectively raise consumer prices.