Dispatch Faith: Scott Adams, Pascal’s Wager, and Hacking Eternity, by Max Heine:

You might’ve read about the January 13 death of Dilbert comic strip creator Scott Adams. Less publicized was the lead-up to his final weeks, following last year’s diagnosis of terminal prostate cancer, when he announced, with an intriguing angle, his planned conversion to Christianity.

In a January 4 livestream on X, Adams spoke in part to his Christian friends. Some had talked with him about being prepared for what happens after his impending death. “I’m now convinced that the risk-reward is completely smart. If it turns out that there’s nothing there, I’ve lost nothing, but I’ve respected your wishes, and I like doing that. If it turns out there is something there, and the Christian model is the closest to it, I win.”

I found no public record showing Adams was aware of the term “Pascal’s wager,” but that’s precisely what he was describing. The wager argues that in light of eternity, choosing to believe in God is the only wise choice. It’s attributed to Blaise Pascal, a genius-level French mathematician, scientist, and philosopher who jotted his musings on hundreds of pieces of paper. …

The wager has turned out to be red meat for opinionated philosophers, theologians, and anyone who relishes decision theory, game theory, certainty/uncertainty problems, etc. If you bet correctly that God and an afterlife are hokum, you gain whatever self-centered pleasures you find on earth, and you lose nothing after dying. But if your bet is wrong, you trade an attractive eternity with God for an eternity hotter than August in Death Valley. Conversely, a correct bet for God generally leads to a life well-lived, even with its sacrifices. The eternal payoff is huge. …

Adams was agnostic until recent months. He said details of any possible conversion were “between me and Jesus,” and he did not publicly address the most obvious challenge to Pascal’s wager: If someone chooses to profess Christianity for self-serving reasons, does that qualify as salvation in God’s eyes? 

That’s sometimes called the “argument from inauthentic belief,” a common  criticism of the wager.

A second criticism of Pascal’s argument is its “failure to prove the existence of God.” Pascal had been working toward a Christian apology, but never finished it. Pensées, even with its breadth, did not purport to be an apology. Quite to the contrary of this criticism, Pascal argued that it’s impossible to prove or disprove God’s existence. Those deprived of any evidence of the divine but lacking the conviction gifted by grace to certain believers, Pascal wrote, should consider the wager’s logic as a starting point to escape their stalemate.

The third criticism is “argument from inconsistent revelations.” It says history’s  many religions and gods deserve to be included in the wager. This would increase the chance of the bettor choosing the wrong god, significantly lessening the chance of the wager’s success. Pascal considered this argument a “trap” for a seeker looking to escape the wager’s dire reckoning, or so intellectually lazy he can manage only “a superficial reflection.” A spiritually hungry seeker would eventually discern that Christianity offers the only true path to God. …

Some religious outlets, writing before and after Adams’ death, were generally approving of any conversion—even one on a deathbed, as the Adventist Review applauded. Others, such as the Catholic Answers website, had some kind words for Adams, but also highlighted his rationale as too calculating.

To its credit, Catholic Answers coverage was rare in explaining one crucial point: Pascal offered the wager “as an intellectual threshold, hoping to move the skeptic from calculation and decision toward ultimate encounter and personal conversion.” Neither pure reason nor forced belief could yield a sure knowledge of God, but the wager offered a step in that direction. …

You could dismiss such advice as a precursor to our era’s “fake it till you make it” ideal. Pascal, however, wasn’t suggesting fakery, but more of an apprenticeship. Not performance and ceremony for their own sake, but investing time to develop godly habits and relationships that form something deeper. As for the salvation to complete that apprenticeship, both Catholics and Protestants would point to Scripture for the basics: Repent of sin. Accept Christ and his forgiveness. Love your neighbor as yourself. Love God. …

[T]here is more than one path leading to a faith commitment. It might be the period of discipleship championed by Pascal. It might be a sudden revelation, like Paul on the Damascus road. It might emerge from closely observing the lives of believers, or for that matter, unbelievers who tragically reject faith-based principles and reap what they sow. …

Or the change might start with a focus on eternity, move to a shrewd wager, and end with sincerity. If that begins on the deathbed but with little time to develop, as with Adams, who are we to judge the outcome?

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