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Kiel: Americans Bear Nearly the Entire Cost of Tariffs

Conor Clarke
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The Kiel Institut (Germany) has published a new policy report, America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs? (See coverage in the Wall Street Journal here.) Here are some of the highlights:

• The 2025 US tariffs are an own goal: American importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost. Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden—the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers.

• Using shipment-level data covering over 25 million transactions valued at nearly $4 trillion, we find near-complete pass-through of tariffs to US import prices.

• US customs revenue surged by approximately $200 billion in 2025—a tax paid almost entirely by Americans.

About the Author

Conor Clarke Avatar
Conor Clarke
Conor Clarke is an Associate Professor of Law at Washington University in St. Louis. His research and teaching are at the intersection of public law and public finance, and his work covers the history of American taxation, income inequality, and the relationship between tax law and administrative law. He previously served as an attorney in the Office of Legal Counsel at the United States Department of Justice, and his scholarship has appeared or is forthcoming in journals such as the University of Chicago Law Review, Virginia Law Review, and Texas Law Review.
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