The Kiel Institut (Germany) has published a new policy report, America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs? (See coverage in the Wall Street Journal here.) Here are some of the highlights:
• The 2025 US tariffs are an own goal: American importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost. Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden—the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers.
• Using shipment-level data covering over 25 million transactions valued at nearly $4 trillion, we find near-complete pass-through of tariffs to US import prices.
• US customs revenue surged by approximately $200 billion in 2025—a tax paid almost entirely by Americans.
