Mindy Herzfeld (Florida), Wars and Oil Crises Drive Tax Policy Shifts, 121 Tax Notes Int’l 2101 (March 23, 2026)

The U.S. bombing of Iran has disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to wild swings in the price of oil and reports of windfall profits for U.S. oil companies. (See “U.S. Oil Groups in Line for $63bn Windfall From Gulf War Disruption,” Financial Times, Mar. 14, 2026.) This $60 billion in projected excess profits far exceeds the cost of the first two weeks of the war, estimated at approximately $16 billion.

In the past, such unexpected returns accruing through wartime price inflation have led to enactment of windfall profits taxes. More generally, the history of the U.S. tax system is a story of policy choices made in response to the disruptions caused by wars and energy crises, suggesting that this war, too, could lead to notable tax policy changes….