Tuesday, June 22, 2004

William Gale (Brookings Institution) & Brennan Kelly (Brookings Institution) have posted The “No New Taxes” Pledge on the Tax Policy Center (Brookings Institution-Urban Institute) web site. Here is the abstract:

This paper examines the “No New Taxes” Pledge, which has been signed by the President and 258 members of Congress. Although it is intended to restrict the size of government, the pledge probably hinders rather than helps efforts to restore fiscal responsibility. Evidence from trends in aggregate taxes and spending, the success or failure of budget rules, and the voting records of pledge signers casts doubt on the view that signing the pledge is an effective effort to “starve the beast” or an act of fiscal responsibility. If all of the signers uphold the pledge, it will prove impossible to repeal any part of the 2001, 2002, and 2003 tax cuts before President Bush leaves office, though the legislation could expire as scheduled even if all the signers supported extension. The pledge may also have implications for appropriate budget scoring rules.