David Kamin (NYU), The Macroeconomic Context for a 2025 Tax Deal, 184 Tax Notes 2673 (Sept. 30, 2024):

In this article, Kamin argues that 2025 looks like a year in which fiscal consolidation would be appropriate given the macroeconomic context for the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and he explains that fiscal consolidation would preferably come in the form of at least fully financing tax cut extensions. But he adds that allowing the tax cuts to expire should be seen as an economically viable alternative if a deal meeting key tax reform goals is not available.

Conclusion
As Brian Deese and I have described [Principles for the 2025 Tax Debate, 181 Tax Notes Fed. 443 (Oct. 16, 2023)], the time has come to break the pattern of 21st century tax policies being dominated by tax cuts that permanently undercut the revenue base and disproportionately benefit the most well-off, and we have laid out principles for reform, namely: (1) at a minimum, fully paying for tax reform relative to current law and strengthening the tax base; (2) focusing the existing limited fiscal space on helping lower-income families; (3) reversing the erosion of the corporate income tax system while maintaining incentives to innovate and invest; (4) eliminating tax cuts for the highest-income Americans and increasing their contributions relative to the pre-2017 tax system; and (5) improving tax administration and simplifying tax filing.

As Congress considers the timing of tax reform and the balance between tax cuts and measures to raise revenue, the immediate macroeconomic conditions should matter — and right now, those conditions point toward the wisdom of fiscal consolidation as part of tax reform without significant delay and in a way that was not true in 2012 when Congress last worked on major legislation addressing tax cut expirations.

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