Erik D. Craft & Robert M. Schmidt (both of University of Richmond, Robins School of Business, Department of Economics) have published An Analysis of the Effects of Vehicle Property Taxes on Vehicle Demand, 58 Nat’l Tax J. 697 (Dec. 2005).  Here is the abstract:

Vehicle personal property taxes recently existed in 31 states. Using data collected during the phaseout of the tax in Virginia, we analyze the effect of differing tax rates on the personal vehicle count and value data in 134 locales. We find that each increase in the effective property tax of one percentage point leads to a reduction in vehicular capital of over 5 percent. This result implies that the average dollar of tax revenue caused a deadweight loss of about 25 cents. Our results also provide cost and redistribution lessons for policymakers considering the enactment or elimination of a vehicle property tax.