Joseph Isenbergh (Chicago) has posted The Future of Taxation on SSRN.  Here is the abstract:

Almost all public discussion of tax policy fails to take into account the difference between the real tax — public spending as a percentage of GDP — and the current (or nominal) tax, which is the amount paid from private hands to the treasury in a given period.

Better understanding of the real tax sheds an entirely new light on the tax policies of previous administrations and reveals necessary aspects of taxation in the future — first and foremost, taxes will be higher — as well as the more salutary policies within the range of possibilities.