Penn Wharton Budget Model, 2024 Election Analyses:

PWBM analyzes policy proposals from both the Trump and Harris campaigns to estimate the budgetary, economic, and distributional effects.

The 2024 Harris Campaign Policy Proposals: Budgetary, Economic and Distributional Effects:

We estimate that the Harris Campaign tax and spending proposals would increase primary deficits by $1.2 trillion over the next 10 years on a conventional basis and by $2.0 trillion on a dynamic basis that includes a reduction in economic activity. Lower and middle-income households generally benefit from increased transfers and credits on a conventional basis, while higher-income households are worse off.

The 2024 Trump Campaign Policy Proposals: Budgetary, Economic and Distributional Effects:

We estimate that the Trump Campaign tax and spending proposals would increase primary deficits by $5.8 trillion over the next 10 years on a conventional basis and by $4.1 trillion on a dynamic basis that includes economic feedback effects. Households across all income groups benefit on a conventional basis.