Adam Feldman, Ranking Trump’s SCOTUS Shortlist (Mainly) by Their Writings:
Republican strategists are already gaming out the possibility that a second-term President Trump could replace a member of the Court’s center-right bloc. The choice would not merely cement a 6-3 conservative majority; it could nudge the Court’s median vote toward Justices Alito and Thomas for a generation. In that context, every résumé line and every turn of phrase in lower-court opinions becomes a tea-leaf for how a nominee might steer the Court on abortion, guns, the post-Chevron administrative law terrain, and the scope of executive power now dominating the headlines.
In a prior post on Empirical SCOTUS I looked at the five nominees that were likely candidates for a possible SCOTUS nomination. I’ve since seen several respected outlets (for example Original Jurisdiction by David Lat and for NBC News) bring Ninth Circuit Judge Patrick Bumatay’s name into the fray so I added him to this analysis along with the five judges I previously examined (Judges Ho (CA5), Oldham (CA5), Thapar (CA6), Rao (CADC), and Cannon (SDFL)).
To understand how each of these judges might shape the future of the Court and consequently their potential value as nominees, this analysis examines focuses on these judges’ outputs – specifically at nine randomly sampled published opinions from each nominee.
My sense still is that Judge Ho is the obvious pick if Justice Thomas is the next justice to step down and Judge Oldham likely gets the nod if Justice Alito is the first to leave SCOTUS as recent history has shown that presidents may look first to a justice’s former clerk to as a replacement if possible.
Everything beyond this point is politics: who’s on the Court when a seat opens, who controls the Senate, and what message the Trump wants to send. But measured strictly by how they rule, how they write, and who mentored them, Oldham, Ho, and Rao form the leading tier of a 2025 Trump shortlist.
- ABA Journal, These 3 Potential Supreme Court Picks Top Ranks in ‘Trump Alignment Index’
- Jonathan Adler (William & Mary), Is Justice Barrett “Solidifying Herself as the Swing Justice”?
- Josh Blackman (South Texas), What Message Does Emil Bove’s Nomination Send To Justices Thomas and Alito?
- Newsweek, If Clarence Thomas Resigns Under Trump, Here’s Who Might Replace Him
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